Война России против Украины уже обошлась Кремлю в 377 млрд.долларов.- А Илларионов

12 октября 2015, 15:50
 В мире Источник: Гуляй-Поле

Россия вступила на тропу войны. Точнее: нынешний кремлевский режим твердо поставил Россию на дорогу войны. Во сколько это уже обошлось? Бюджету? Обществу? Всей стране? Есть разные способы оценки стоимости нынешней войны.

Имеющиеся оценки

Один из вариантов оценки стоимости войны с Украиной был предложен в докладе "Путин.Война". Итоговая оценка, полученная суммированием результатов по нескольким отмеченным в докладе позициям (прямые расходы, беженцы, Крым), составила около 800 млрд. руб., или примерно 18 млрд.дол. по преобладавшему в 2014-15 гг. валютному курсу.

Однако эта оценка не охватывает всех расходов, какие в этом случае следует учитывать.

Во-первых, все военные расходы в войне против Украины намного больше, чем прямые расходы на ведение военных действий непосредственно на территории Украины.

Во-вторых, расходы на подготовку и ведение войны с Украиной начали осуществляться задолго до начала военных действий против Украины.

В-третьих, нынешняя война, начатая Кремлем, - это война не только с Украиной.

В-четвертых, дополнительные издержки в связи с подготовкой и ведением военных действий несет не только государственный бюджет, но и частный сектор.

Базовые предположения для расчетов

Предпринятый ниже расчет более полной стоимости нынешней войны исходит из следующих предположений.

1. Прямой ценой нынешней войны предлагается считать дополнительные расходы, вызванные подготовкой и ведением военных действий в "военные годы" (по сравнению со средним уровнем военных расходов в "довоенное время").

2. Поскольку ныне ведущаяся война является войной не только на украинском фронте и не только против Украины, то ее начало не следует привязывать непосредственно к началу войны против Украины (27 июля 2013 г.).

3. За дату начала экономической/финансовой подготовки к ведению нынешней войны принята дата начала фактического осуществления Кремлем программы перевооружения российских вооруженных сил на сумму в 20 трлн.руб., принятой в 2011 г. В нижеследующих расчетах принято, что программа перевооружения фактически начала осуществляться с января 2012 г. Именно тогда стало заметным превышение осуществлявшихся тогда военных расходов над средним уровнем военных расходов, наблюдавшихся в "довоенное время" в 2000-2011 гг.

4. Под средним уровнем военных расходов в "довоенное время" принят уровень военных расходов в 2000-11 гг., составлявший, по данным Минфина России, в среднем 2,7% ВВП.

5. Кроме прямых военных расходов, осуществлявшихся из государственного бюджета, в общую цену войны следует отнести также величину дополнительного оттока частного капитала из России по сравнению со средним уровнем оттока частного капитала, наблюдавшегося в "довоенное время" в 2000-2011 гг. Одним из следствий увеличения оттока частного капитала в "военные годы" стало заметное снижение официальных международных резервов.

6. Под средним уровнем оттока частного капитала в "довоенное время" принята средняя величина оттока частного капитала в 2000-11 гг., составлявшая, по данным Банка России, около 2% ВВП.

Таким образом, общую цену нынешней войны можно определить как сумму прямой цены для государственного бюджета (величины дополнительных государственных военных расходов по сравнению со средним уровнем военных расходов в "довоенное время") и цены от подготовки и ведения военных действий для частного сектора (определяемой по величине дополнительного оттока частного капитала по сравнению со средним размером оттока частного капитала в "довоенное время").

Прямая цена нынешней войны для государственного бюджета

В 2000-11 гг. военные расходы РФ составляли в среднем в год 720 млрд.руб. в текущих ценах, 270 млрд.руб. в ценах января 2000 г., или 25 млрд.дол. в текущих ценах по обменному курсу.

В 2012-15 гг. (оценка всего 2015 г. сделана по данным за первые восемь месяцев 2015 г.) военные расходы РФ составили в среднем в год 2,4 трлн.руб. в текущих ценах, 515 млрд.руб. в ценах января 2000 г., или 61 млрд.дол. в текущих ценах по обменному курсу.

Дополнительные военные расходы РФ в "военные годы (2012-15 гг.)" по сравнению со средним уровнем "довоенного времени (2000-11 гг.)" оцениваются в среднем в год в 1,7 трлн.руб. в текущих ценах, 247 млрд.руб. в ценах января 2000 г., или 36 млрд.дол. в текущих ценах по обменному курсу.

В целом за четыре "военных года (2012-15 гг.)" дополнительные военные расходы РФ оцениваются в 6,9 трлн.руб. в текущих ценах, 987 млрд.руб. в ценах января 2000 г., или 144 млрд.дол. в текущих ценах по обменному курсу.

Цена нынешней войны для российского частного сектора В 2000-11 гг. отток частного капитала из России составлял в среднем в год 19 млрд.дол. В 2012-15 гг. отток частного капитала из России увеличился до 93 млрд.дол. в среднем в год. Дополнительный отток частного капитала из России в "военные годы (2012-15 гг.)" (оценка всего 2015 г. сделана по данным за первые два квартала 2015 г.) по сравнению со средним уровнем оттока капитала в "довоенные годы" оценивается в 75 млрд.дол. в год. В целом за четыре "военных года (2012-15 гг.)" дополнительный (по сравнению со средним относительно ВВП уровнем в "довоенные годы") отток частного капитала из России оценивается в 232 млрд.дол.

Эту цифру можно сравнить с величиной сокращения международных резервов России. За время подготовки и проведения наиболее активных военных действий с 1 января 2013 г. по 1 мая 2015 г. международные резервы Российской Федерации сократились на 182 млрд.дол.

Общая цена нынешней войны на конец 2015 г.

Общая цена нынешней войны (дополнительные военные расходы плюс дополнительный отток частного каитала) в 2012-15 гг. оценивается в среднем примерно в 94 млрд.дол. в год, в целом за четыре года - приблизительно в 377 млрд.дол.

Примечание

При оценке стоимости нынешней войны не учитывались людские потери (в России, в Украине, в других странах), стоимость разрушенного жилья, производственной, транспортной, иной инфраструктуры, расходы, связанные с перемещением миллионов беженцев, их реабилитацией и обустройством на новых местах и некоторые другие расходы.

Будущее

Начало российских военных операций на Ближнем Востоке означает неизбежное увеличение цены нынешней войны как для российского государственного бюджета, российского частного сектора, всего российского общества, так и для жителей ближневосточных государств. В случае повышения мировых цен на энергоносители в результате разворачивающихся военных действий также возрастут издержки нынешней войны и для граждан большинства стран мира.

АНДРЕЙ ИЛЛАРИОНОВ

Источник: Гуляй-Поле

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If so how do you {prevent|reduce|stop|protect against} it, any plugin or anything you can {advise|suggest|recommend}? I get so much lately it's driving me {mad|insane|crazy} so any {assistance|help|support} is very much appreciated.| Greetings! {Very helpful|Very useful} advice {within this|in this particular} {article|post}! {It is the|It's the} little changes {that make|which will make|that produce|that will make} {the biggest|the largest|the greatest|the most important|the most significant} changes. {Thanks a lot|Thanks|Many thanks} for sharing!| {I really|I truly|I seriously|I absolutely} love {your blog|your site|your website}.. {Very nice|Excellent|Pleasant|Great} colors & theme. Did you {create|develop|make|build} {this website|this site|this web site|this amazing site} yourself? Please reply back as I'm {looking to|trying to|planning to|wanting to|hoping to|attempting to} create {my own|my very own|my own personal} {blog|website|site} and {would like to|want to|would love to} {know|learn|find out} where you got this from or {what the|exactly what the|just what the} theme {is called|is named}. {Thanks|Many thanks|Thank you|Cheers|Appreciate it|Kudos}!| {Hi there|Hello there|Howdy}! This {post|article|blog post} {couldn't|could not} be written {any better|much better}! {Reading through|Looking at|Going through|Looking through} this {post|article} reminds me of my previous roommate! He {always|constantly|continually} kept {talking about|preaching about} this. {I will|I'll|I am going to|I most certainly will} {forward|send} {this article|this information|this post} to him. {Pretty sure|Fairly certain} {he will|he'll|he's going to} {have a good|have a very good|have a great} read. {Thank you for|Thanks for|Many thanks for|I appreciate you for} sharing!| {Wow|Whoa|Incredible|Amazing}! This blog looks {exactly|just} like my old one! It's on a {completely|entirely|totally} different {topic|subject} but it has pretty much the same {layout|page layout} and design. {Excellent|Wonderful|Great|Outstanding|Superb} choice of colors!| {There is|There's} {definately|certainly} {a lot to|a great deal to} {know about|learn about|find out about} this {subject|topic|issue}. {I like|I love|I really like} {all the|all of the} points {you made|you've made|you have made}.| {You made|You've made|You have made} some {decent|good|really good} points there. I {looked|checked} {on the internet|on the web|on the net} {for more info|for more information|to find out more|to learn more|for additional information} about the issue and found {most individuals|most people} will go along with your views on {this website|this site|this web site}.| {Hi|Hello|Hi there|What's up}, I {log on to|check|read} your {new stuff|blogs|blog} {regularly|like every week|daily|on a regular basis}. Your {story-telling|writing|humoristic} style is {awesome|witty}, keep {doing what you're doing|up the good work|it up}!| I {simply|just} {could not|couldn't} {leave|depart|go away} your {site|web site|website} {prior to|before} suggesting that I {really|extremely|actually} {enjoyed|loved} {the standard|the usual} {information|info} {a person|an individual} {supply|provide} {for your|on your|in your|to your} {visitors|guests}? Is {going to|gonna} be {back|again} {frequently|regularly|incessantly|steadily|ceaselessly|often|continuously} {in order to|to} {check up on|check out|inspect|investigate cross-check} new posts| {I wanted|I needed|I want to|I need to} to thank you for this {great|excellent|fantastic|wonderful|good|very good} read!! I {definitely|certainly|absolutely} {enjoyed|loved} every {little bit of|bit of} it. {I have|I've got|I have got} you {bookmarked|book marked|book-marked|saved as a favorite} {to check out|to look at} new {stuff you|things you} post…| {Hi|Hello|Hi there|What's up}, just wanted to {mention|say|tell you}, I {enjoyed|liked|loved} this {article|post|blog post}. It was {inspiring|funny|practical|helpful}. Keep on posting!| {Hi there|Hello}, I enjoy reading {all of|through} your {article|post|article post}. I {like|wanted} to write a little comment to support you.| I {always|constantly|every time} spent my half an hour to read this {blog|weblog|webpage|website|web site}'s {articles|posts|articles or reviews|content} {everyday|daily|every day|all the time} along with a {cup|mug} of coffee.| I {always|for all time|all the time|constantly|every time} emailed this {blog|weblog|webpage|website|web site} post page to all my {friends|associates|contacts}, {because|since|as|for the reason that} if like to read it {then|after that|next|afterward} my {friends|links|contacts} will too.| My {coder|programmer|developer} is trying to {persuade|convince} me to move to .net from PHP. I have always disliked the idea because of the {expenses|costs}. But he's tryiong none the less. I've been using {Movable-type|WordPress} on {a number of|a variety of|numerous|several|various} websites for about a year and am {nervous|anxious|worried|concerned} about switching to another platform. 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I could have sworn I've {been to|visited} {this blog|this web site|this website|this site|your blog} before but after {browsing through|going through|looking at} {some of the|a few of the|many of the} {posts|articles} I realized it's new to me. {Anyways|Anyhow|Nonetheless|Regardless}, I'm {definitely|certainly} {happy|pleased|delighted} {I found|I discovered|I came across|I stumbled upon} it and I'll be {bookmarking|book-marking} it and checking back {frequently|regularly|often}!| {Terrific|Great|Wonderful} {article|work}! {This is|That is} {the type of|the kind of} {information|info} {that are meant to|that are supposed to|that should} be shared {around the|across the} {web|internet|net}. {Disgrace|Shame} on {the {seek|search} engines|Google} for {now not|not|no longer} positioning this {post|submit|publish|put up} {upper|higher}! 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I {came across|found} this board and I {in finding|find|to find} It {truly|really} {useful|helpful} & it helped me out {a lot|much}. {I am hoping|I hope|I'm hoping} {to give|to offer|to provide|to present} {something|one thing} {back|again} and {help|aid} others {like you|such as you} {helped|aided} me.| {Hello|Hi|Hello there|Hi there|Howdy|Good day|Hey there}! {I just|I simply} {would like to|want to|wish to} {give you a|offer you a} {huge|big} thumbs up {for the|for your} {great|excellent} {info|information} {you have|you've got|you have got} {here|right here} on this post. {I will be|I'll be|I am} {coming back to|returning to} {your blog|your site|your website|your web site} for more soon.| I {always|all the time|every time} used to {read|study} {article|post|piece of writing|paragraph} in news papers but now as I am a user of {internet|web|net} {so|thus|therefore} from now I am using net for {articles|posts|articles or reviews|content}, thanks to web.| Your {way|method|means|mode} of {describing|explaining|telling} {everything|all|the whole thing} in this {article|post|piece of writing|paragraph} is {really|actually|in fact|truly|genuinely} {nice|pleasant|good|fastidious}, {all|every one} {can|be able to|be capable of} {easily|without difficulty|effortlessly|simply} {understand|know|be aware of} it, Thanks a lot.| {Hi|Hello} there, {I found|I discovered} your {blog|website|web site|site} {by means of|via|by the use of|by way of} Google {at the same time as|whilst|even as|while} {searching for|looking for} a {similar|comparable|related} {topic|matter|subject}, your {site|web site|website} {got here|came} up, it {looks|appears|seems|seems to be|appears to be like} {good|great}. {I have|I've} bookmarked it in my google bookmarks. {Hello|Hi} there, {simply|just} {turned into|became|was|become|changed into} {aware of|alert to} your {blog|weblog} {thru|through|via} Google, {and found|and located} that {it is|it's} {really|truly} informative. {I'm|I am} {gonna|going to} {watch out|be careful} for brussels. {I will|I'll} {appreciate|be grateful} {if you|should you|when you|in the event you|in case you|for those who|if you happen to} {continue|proceed} this {in future}. {A lot of|Lots of|Many|Numerous} {other folks|folks|other people|people} {will be|shall be|might be|will probably be|can be|will likely be} benefited {from your|out of your} writing. Cheers!| {I am|I'm} curious to find out what blog {system|platform} {you have been|you happen to be|you are|you're} {working with|utilizing|using}? I'm {experiencing|having} some {minor|small} security {problems|issues} with my latest {site|website|blog} and {I would|I'd} like to find something more {safe|risk-free|safeguarded|secure}. Do you have any {solutions|suggestions|recommendations}?| {I am|I'm} {extremely|really} impressed with your writing skills {and also|as well as} with the layout on your {blog|weblog}. Is this a paid theme or did you {customize|modify} it yourself? {Either way|Anyway} keep up the {nice|excellent} quality writing, {it's|it is} rare to see a {nice|great} blog like this one {these days|nowadays|today}.| {I am|I'm} {extremely|really} {inspired|impressed} {with your|together with your|along with your} writing {talents|skills|abilities} {and also|as {smartly|well|neatly} as} with the {layout|format|structure} {for your|on your|in your|to your} {blog|weblog}. {Is this|Is that this} a paid {subject|topic|subject matter|theme} or did you {customize|modify} it {yourself|your self}? {Either way|Anyway} {stay|keep} up the {nice|excellent} {quality|high quality} writing, {it's|it is} {rare|uncommon} {to peer|to see|to look} a {nice|great} {blog|weblog} like this one {these days|nowadays|today}..| {Hi|Hello}, Neat post. {There is|There's} {a problem|an issue} {with your|together with your|along with your} {site|web site|website} in {internet|web} explorer, {may|might|could|would} {check|test} this? 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